A bearish stock market is often referred to as a "bearish market". It is a financial market where share prices continue to decline over a long period of time and investors are negatively impacted.
Investors lack of money to invest or It is expensive. Aggregate in case of recession Confidence in the economy is generally lacking and Share price will perform well in future Investors are pessimistic.In this case, the share price expands goes downwards over time. Generally: At least 20 from the highest point of the stock market It is illustrated by percentage decline. In this case, investors of the stock market, They feel that the chances are low. They are cautious and skeptical about share prices as much as Even though the investment is increasing, the price of those shares After seeing that he could not perform well. Frustration among investors increases and overall The market itself tends to relax. in business amount Even if the investors come from the market They start fleeing. Some investors The share price may fall further in the future Estimates start to withdraw investment. New The market cannot attract investors.
Why do some investors sell shares?
Hesitant in the volume of share trading, A deficiency can be seen. This is the root of all of them.
Goes economic situation and its Indicators Like: liquidity situation, interest rate, inflation rate, Economic growth rate, unemployment rate, trade, business, Status of new investment or additional investment and Consumer's purchasing power. overall economic। Decline in activity, rise in prices.
The reason is that when consumer spending increases, savings are reduced goes As a result, investment in the stock market is reduced will come Currently high interest rate in Nepal, tight .Government Policy, Unsettled Politics and Government, Unstable and weak economic policy of the government, The monetary policy of the Rashtra Bank is inflexible, highInflation, low economic growth, economic challenges such as slowdown in activity Shares for the past 27 months due to emergence. The market seems to be on a bearish journey.
The economic condition of any country in the world is stable no At different times for different reasons Differences in the country's economic conditions Appearing. Bad situation at times Even if it happens, it will always remain in the same stateIt should not be said. Nepal's stock market Looking at history, bullish tops from past to present And bearish bottom positions in the table below Presented:
The above table shows the 30 year history of NEPSE 4 bullish tops and 4 in the period so far
A bearish bottom can be seen. The last 2
Year 3 months NEPSE index so far Down from the highest point at 3199.03 (2078, Bhadra 2).
Last May had fallen to a bottom of 1818.31.
By about 43.16 percent in NEPSE index
It can be seen that there is a decline. In this calculation
In between IPO, FPO, bonus, rights including the shares added through are Current of most of the shares thus added Market value is often higher than face value Double, triple or even more than that Market of shares added during the period Capitalization helped the overall NEPSE index can be seen giving. Or even more than that Also to say that there could have been a decline can be If added during this period 3 years to NEPSE index excluding stocks Compared to the previous one, it actually is The index fell by more than 50 percent.
Some of the bases of bearish stock market bottom conditions are as follows:
1. When about 10 percent of investors in the stock market express extreme disgust and despair. There are plenty of social networks and online media to predict such a situation. Through this, the state (psychology) of the investor can be estimated.
2. When the situation of economic depression and inflation reaches its peak and it seems that it will not go any higher.
3. When regulatory policy, guidance begins to move from a tighter position to a looser position.
4. When the officials of the regulatory bodies also start to have a positive view towards the stock market and they start to feel that the extreme bearish period is over.
5. When the situation of liquidity crisis reaches its peak and the situation of ease begins to come, which can be seen through the main CD ratio among the various indicators published by Nepal Rastra Bank.
6. When interest rates on loans peak and begin to decline and approach single digits.
7. When the market price of the company's shares starts to come close to or around the par value or net worth per share.
8. It can be seen from the above table that "History Repeats Always" applies to the stock market as well. When the stock market has fallen 20 percent from its bullish high and entered bearish territory, it has crossed bearish positions for more than 2 years. From the high point of 2078 Bhadra 2 till now, the stock market has gone through the downward trend of about 2 years and 3 months. If the stock market falls by more than 40 percent from the high point of bullish, at which point it tries to come back not once, not twice, but it does not get the confidence to return completely. That point or its vicinity can be considered as the bottom of a bearish market. As it is now, the stock market has gone back to 1800 four times.
The above illustration is what the author saw and experienced
and analyzed based on experience. Author 2067 from extreme bearish situation
Every subsequent entry into the secondary market
What are bullish and bearish market cycles?
That which was formed on the basis and in that cycle
What were the main influencing factors?
Basically all bull beer Similarities are often found in the case of cycles And that it will reduce in the coming days as well Keeping the possibility alive of the future can be guessed.
Hence this assumption on the 8 bases mentioned above. It can be said that the stock market is now Bearish bottoms have come and at times like these Newbies who want to enter the stock market .The best investment for investors.There may be an opportunity. Stock markets often fall
Presents opportunities as well as risks. If you can recognize that opportunity you can be successful in the stock market. your investment strategy, financial goals, Risk Capacity, Liquidity, Credit With easement and investment tenure etc.
How to make an investment strategy itself?
Be with yourself. In your specific circumstances finance to invest according to your vision, You can consult a Counselor To minimize the risk in investment. They help Successful . Investors in a hurry do not become Too deep for That Understanding, experiencing and experiencing investment should be Bearish shares in the author's experience, Investors who penetrated the bottom of the market followed, You never have to go and regret it, more than others.
They are able to take more Benefits It is said that they can become successful in the stock market is However, the stock market is a more risky market Yes, consider the risk while investing Here Investment decisions should be taken voluntarily only in order to be able to bear the risks that may occur.
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